How Trade Wars, Interest Rates, and Inflation Are Shaping the Markets in 2025 With Peter Madlem

Peter Madlem is the Chief Investment Officer at Avalan Wealth, a Santa Barbara-based firm that specializes in personalized financial, business, and investment planning for entrepreneurs and affluent individuals. With nearly 40 years of experience in investment management, Peter held key leadership roles, including Regional CIO at Northern Trust and CIO at Montecito Bank & Trust, where he rebuilt the firm’s investment research and infrastructure and led the management of its billion-dollar bond portfolio. He also founded three successful companies and is the author of five books on investing, covering topics such as ETFs, REITs, and closed-end funds.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

[3:11] Peter Madlem explains how 2025 has validated the “stay the course” investment strategy
[4:35] The surprising market rebound after an 18.9% drop in early April
[5:45] Impact of Trump’s 33 trade deals and their effect on global tariffs
[7:09] Why classical economists were wrong about the effects of tariffs
[9:45] The significance of the Fed’s 2% inflation target and its broader implications
[13:24] How strong corporate earnings could sustain market momentum despite rate uncertainty
[17:34] Peter’s outlook on the end of globalization and the unraveling of the post-WWII economic order

In this episode…

Economic uncertainty, market volatility, and rising inflation have left many entrepreneurs and investors wondering how to position their portfolios for long-term success. With conflicting signals from the Fed, rapid shifts in earnings trends, and ongoing trade tensions, it’s increasingly difficult to separate noise from insight. How can business-minded individuals make sense of these macroeconomic forces to protect and grow their wealth?

According to Peter Madlem, a seasoned investment strategist, staying the course with a well-constructed portfolio remains a winning strategy, even in turbulent markets. He highlights the importance of interpreting earnings momentum, understanding the nuanced impact of tariffs, and monitoring inflation as critical variables in forward-looking planning. Peter also breaks down how shifting geopolitical dynamics and the potential end of the post-World War II economic order could reshape long-term investment strategies.

In this episode of The Road Already Traveled, Rich Schuette interviews Peter Madlem, Chief Investment Officer at Avalan Wealth, about navigating market uncertainty through data-driven investment planning. Peter discusses why traditional economic forecasts failed in 2025, the surprising resilience of corporate earnings, and the evolving role of the US trade policy. He also provides insights on inflation targets, gold and currency forecasts, and the implications of deglobalization.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

Quotable Moments:

“Those who just stayed the course and had a good risk-controlled portfolio construction did just fine.”
“It would be really wonderful if we could have a blue chip economist come out and say I was wrong.”
“The Trump agenda seems to think that we can grow ourselves out of debt.”
“Momentum this strong doesn’t turn or stop on a dime.”
“We’ve unraveled the post-World War II trading order and economic order… it’s every man for himself.”

Action Steps:

Maintain a diversified, risk-controlled portfolio: Staying the course through volatility helps investors avoid making emotional decisions and long-term losses.
Monitor earnings momentum across sectors: Tracking company performance reveals market strength and helps guide smarter allocation decisions.
Stay informed on global trade policy shifts: Understanding the impact of tariffs and trade deals allows entrepreneurs to anticipate economic ripple effects.
Watch inflation indicators and Fed signals closely: Inflation and rate decisions directly influence consumer behavior, borrowing costs, and investment returns.
Reevaluate international exposure as globalization unwinds: Adapting to a changing global order helps protect portfolios from geopolitical and economic disruption.

Sponsor for this episode…

This episode is sponsored by Avalan, a wealth management firm dedicated to personalized financial, business, and investment planning.

We work with select high-net-worth individuals, corporations, and trusts, providing guidance tailored to their unique needs.

From supercar entrepreneurs to music industry entrepreneurs, our team employs proven investment strategies to help them preserve wealth, protect assets, and plan charitable giving.

With an unwavering focus on world-class service, our relationships are built to last generations, helping clients achieve lifelong goals through a thoughtful, consultative approach.

To learn how Avalan can empower you to reach your goals, visit https://www.avalanwealth.com/contact/.